According to this Spanish-language blog post from the Fundacion Solon, the mega hydroelectric plants of Chepete and El Bala are presented as the future of Bolivia, as the first step to turn Bolivia into the energy heart of South America, as the new export business that will generate an income of 1,250 million dollars a year and that It will alleviate the fall in gas prices and reserves. However, the “Product 4: Socio-economic Financial Assessment Study” that is part of the “Identification Study” prepared by Geodata during the years 2015-2016 shows an extremely uncertain and dangerous scenario in economic terms.
In relation to the mega-hydroelectric power plant in El Bala, Geodata recommends postponing its construction for 20 years “until the conditions of the energy market in Bolivia and abroad indicate the convenience of its implementation” (Annex 1: Budgets and energy costs, page 22). All the data provided by Geodata shows that if this hydroelectric plant were built today, it would be deficient and would result in a loss of several tens of millions of dollars. El Bala's electricity generation costs reach $ 81 (USD) per Megawatt hour (MWh) and the average price at which Brazil bought hydroelectric power during the last decade is USD 52 per MWh.
As for Chepete, Geodata states on page 43 of the document "4.2: Financial economic evaluation" that the profitability of the project depends on a "base rate" of USD 70 per MWh. In other words, Bolivia should have a purchase contract by Brazil for USD 70 per MWh for the next 50 years. According to Geodata, the energy cost of Chepete is USD 55 per MWh. It is striking that Geodata does not make any analysis of the real possibility that the purchase price in Brazil will rise to USD 70 per MWh for the period 2025-2075. The entire study on the benefits of Chepete is based on a desire, on an assumption about the purchase price that is not substantiated or demonstrated throughout an "Identification Study" that cost more than three million dollars to the country. The Geodata study does not give any confidence, certainty and less guarantee about the profitability of Chepete and directly rules out the viability of El Bala. Investing more than six billion dollars and doubling the country's current foreign debt in a business that has such an uncertain prognosis, to say the least, would be a serious mistake. It is essential to promote a broad national debate to transparent all the information on these mega projects and to analyze with feasibility their viability. A mistake "in the largest investment in the history of Bolivia" as stated by the government would be catastrophic for the future of the country in the 21st century.
The report can be accessed here
A set of slides prepared by Fundacion Solon can be accessed here.